Daycare Sales Forecast Template

With your base assumptions set, review the Monthly Forecast sheet to check whether the projections look right for each month. Apply seasonal adjustment factors where you know enrollment shifts — August and September see enrollment surges as families get on schedules before school starts, while June and July often see school-age enrollment drop. If you're planning to add capacity mid-year (opening a new room, hiring to accommodate a waitlist), set the capacity increase in the Assumptions sheet with the month it takes effect. The Scenario Comparison sheet is worth filling out next: set a conservative downside at 10-15% lower occupancy to understand your revenue floor before committing to expenses.

The two most important forecast variables for a daycare are occupancy rate by age group and the private pay vs subsidy split. Occupancy should target 85-95% for a financially stable center — below 80% and you're likely covering fixed costs with little margin. The subsidy split matters because government subsidy reimbursement rates are typically 10-30% lower than private tuition rates and involve a payment lag; centers that budget assuming private-pay rates on all enrolled children consistently underestimate cash flow needs. A well-built daycare forecast separates these streams and models them at their actual rates rather than blending them together.